From informed to overwhelmed: The dual dynamics of political microtargeting exposure on political interest and involvementent

Political microtargeting (PMT) has become a powerful tool for political campaigns, shaping voters’ exposure to tailored messages. This study investigates the impact of PMT exposure on political interest and engagement during an election campaign, distinguishing between within-person and between-person associations. Using a longitudinal design across three waves and applying a random intercept cross-lagged panel model, we examined how exposure to PMT influences individual-level changes in political outcomes over time. The results show strong positive associations at the between-person level, indicating that people who are more often exposed to PMT also report greater political interest and engagement. However, no significant within-person associations were found. Although these within-person relationships were not significant, they showed an interesting trend that was in line with the theoretical expectation that a sudden surge in PMT exposure (e.g., during an election campaign) might negatively impact political outcomes. The potential reasons for this non-significance are further explored in the manuscript. These findings contribute to the understanding of PMT’s role in shaping political attitudes and provide important directions for future research.